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风险模型毕业论文Risk Modeling Dissertation:Applying JIT production to TongXing Warp Knitting Ltd by Discrete Event Simulation model

所在位置: 翻译公司 > 新闻资讯 > 翻译知识 / 日期:2017-12-18 08:16:39 / 来源:网络

摘要:离散事件计算机模拟能够帮助采用精益制造,通过提供可实现的基于时间的活动的改进以及可信的预计资源节约。

Introduction
1.1 rational and motivation
1.2 research questions
1.3 aim and objectives
1.4 research methods (optional; you can include it in as a different chapter)
1.5 audience, scope and limitation of this research
1.6 structure of the dissertation
1.7 chapter summary

Introduction:

Literature review:
1. Lean philosophy学习历史

 

1.1 Lean production

丰田生产体系是一个综合性的社会技术体系,既涉及管理学理论,又涉及实践。在丰田汽车公司(Rachna Shah等,2007)的实验和倡议中持续了三十年。丰田生产系统于1984年通过丰田汽车公司和通用汽车公司的合资企业在美国正式推出。精益生产从通常被称为丰田生产系统(同上)的替代品。随着这种管理理念的延伸,专家和管理者已经放弃了由固有的多功能性和复杂性而引起的精益生产的早期误解。因此,精益生产已经通过学术和商业出版物(Rachna Shah et al。,2007)得到了公众的认可,并成为美国制造业的重要组成部分(Wood et al。,2004)。它很快引起了全球范围的广泛关注,特别是在西方国家。 Rinehart(1997)曾经说过:精益生产将成为21世纪的标准制造模式。Toyota Production System is a comprehensive social and technical systeminvolving both theory and practice in management science. Itoriginated in the experiments and initiatives lasted three decades at Toyota Motor Company (Rachna Shah et al., 2007).Toyota production system was formally launched on The United State via the joint venture between Toyota Motor Company and General Motors in 1984.Lean productionstemmed from and is commonly known as a substitution for Toyota Production System (ibid). Followed by the extension of this management philosophy, experts and managers have abandoned the early misconceptions of lean production which was caused by its inherent versatility and complication. As a result, lean productionhas been properly recognized by the public through academic and business publications (Rachna Shah et al., 2007) and turnedinto an essential part of the manufacturing industry in the United States (Wood et al., 2004). It has soon aroused the wide-spread attention in the global scope, especially in western countries. Rinehart (1997) once said Lean production will bethe standard manufacturing mode of the 21st century.

回顾现有文献,科学家和研究人员建立了许多精益生产的定义或概念.20世纪后期,像Shingo(1989)这样的科学家将精益生产视为与传统制造方法相反的反直觉方法。其他一些人则指出精益生产与制造绩效相关的关键原则:车间间物料和信息的连续流动;突出客户吸引力而不是组织推动的有效性;不断优化和整合人力资源(Womack and Jones,1996 in Michael,2000)。 Hopp和Spearman(2004)认为精益生产是通过集成系统来降低货物或服务的缓冲成本。Reviewing the existing literature, a number of definitions or conceptions of lean production were established by scientists and researchers.In the late 20th century, some scientists like Shingo (1989) regarded lean production as a counter-intuitive approachcompared to the traditional manufacturing methods. Some others pinpoint key principles of lean production associated with manufacturing performance: continuous flow of materials and information among workshop; highlighting the effectiveness of customer puff rather than organization push; constant optimization and Integration of human resource (Womack and Jones,1996 in Michael, 2000). Hopp and Spearman (2004) thought lean production is to minimizing the buffering costwhiledelivering goods or services through its integrated system. Schonberg (2002) has defined the term World Class Manufacture, namely lean manufacturing or lean production. It embraces the idea of having the right products with high quality at the right time sold at proper price.According to Rachna Shah (2007), by means of simultaneously reducing or minimizing the variability of the upstream resource (supplier), the downstream resource (customer) and the internal resource, lean production is able to achieve the purpose of eliminating the waste.
While counter to these attempts to define lean production, Dahlgaard and Dahlgarrd-Park (2006) and Lewis (2000) have doubt the degree of accuracy and clearness of those existing definitions. The absence of a unique and clear definition would hinder the implementation of lean production to a certain extent, for instant it may encounter difficultiesof both communication(Boaden, 1997 in Jostein, 2009) and identifying the overall objective of the conception (Andersson et al., 2006 in Jostein, 2009). 

Lean production couldconduceto exploit and cultivate competitive advantages for manufacturers via eliminatingsurplus stocks and excess capacityfor the purpose of moderating and alleviating the impact of supply variability, processing time variability and demand variability,
However, in the light of Anupindi (1999), maintaining excess capacity would breached the core lean principles; the acceptance level of the second one is much higher that rely on lowering throughput time that can be realized by keeping continues flow without unnecessarybreaks during manufacturing process.Consequently, building a social-technical system is required to manage supply variability, processing time variability and demand variability whenproceeding with minimizing inventory and lean principle(Hopp andSpearman, 2004; De Treville and Antonakis, 2006). 
To be specific, fail to deliver goods or services with right quality and quantity on time can cause supply variability (Womack et al., 1990). Creating reliable and long term relationship with some key suppliers and developing dependable relationship with supplier base could manage the issue of variability in supply.Not only that, periodical feedback on process and product quality and delivery performance is helpful with restrainingsupply variability. Companies should also take further improvement and development into account (Rachna Shah et al., 2007). In order to shorten the variability in processing time, identifying specifics of production line benefits line balancing and the prediction of production volume. Superfluous rework can be avoided by setting up strict quality standards which in turn would cut down processing time and production cost (Monden, 1983).The change of demand could swing the whole stability of production schedule. Takt time stemmed from cycle time is therefore designed to adjustproduction capacity according with customer demand and the net active work time (ibid).

Along with the expansion in different regions and different fields, lean production has been widely applied in manufacturing and service industry.For example, Maike, Todd and Patricia (2009) described the trial of lean implementation projects within a global manufacturer which is specialized in producing food processing machines. Lean concepts was also used to improve processing procedure of integrated steel mill primarily byvalue stream mapping to pinpoint proper lean techniques (Fawaz et al., 2007).Tarcisio (2009) conducted a case study of a harvester assembly line that assessed the effectiveness of lean production on working environment at both plant and division level. 

In terms of service industry, implementation of lean principle has been widely promoted in recent years, particularly in the United State, the United Kingdom and Australia (Stewart et al., 2012;Brandao de Souza, 2009). 35% of formal publications in healthcare service that mentioned process improvementmethodologies focused on lean conception(Radnor, 2010).Apart from Health Care, evidence of implementation of lean in service sector can be also found in Government organization (Radnor and Bucci, 2007), Consulting Service (NICOLAS, 2011), Financial Service (Wharton, 2009), Airport (Beca, 2013), Hospitality Organizations (Justin, 2011) etc. 

1.2 Just-In-Time production

TOYOTA developed Just in Time (JIT) system to streamline its production process. According to Schonberger (1986), JIT production was one of the four tenets of World Class Manufacturing that are needed for its successful implementation. Paul and Suresh (1997) described that Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM), Total Quality Management (TQM) and JIT are three pillars of World Class Manufacturing. Similarly,Monden (1983) considered JIT was one of the core principles of Toyota Production System and the main objective was to cut down cost budgeting in terms of quality control, quality assurance andemployee involvement. Grunwald et al. (1989) viewed JIT as a control system aiming at inventory reduction and planning simplification in the context of repetitive manufacturing.JIT was an integrated system involving production, sales and distribution, aiming to eliminate waste and inventories (Koregaonkar, 1992).Flynn et al. (1995)and McLachlin(1997) supplemented the definition with customer orientation and quality improvement respectively. 

The first article associated with the implementation of JIT production has appeared in 1977 (Sugimori et al., 1977). Cultivating a proper relationship with supplier and improving employee participation were underlined in order to successfully implement World Class Manufacturing (Schonberger, 1986). He also listed some JIT firms that gained competitive advantage from World Class Manufacturingphilosophy. Suzaki’s (1987) has published a book involved in various cases of JIT production implementation at shop-floor stage which was suitable for both employees and managers.Since then, JIT soon became popular throughout the world.

JIT production is delivering sustainable competitive advantage to organization s as a change and improvement strategy (Seif and Qasim, 2012).It is characterized as pull approach as well, which is opposite to the conventional approach described as push. Kanban was introduced as a technique to manage materials from the preceding work station andregulate production flow(Ohno,1988).The upstream station only produces the exact amount of items needed by the next work station. And the certain amount is decided by the customers’ requirement. The ideal continuous work flow can only be made under the premise of fully understanding of the accurate timing and capacity of machine (Manoochehri, 1988).
It can bring significant business improvements while implementing JIT manufacturing system: 
a. Lead time reduction
Lead time refers to the length of time it takes to produce a product and to the frequency of production for a particular product (Nitin et al., 2010). Gupta et al. (2003) presented a case study in which the lead time is reduced almost by 50 % in a service sector by the application of JIT philosophy. 

b. Inventory reduction
Work-in-progress inventories are considered as the root of many problems at different levels (Spencer et al. 1994). High cost of inventories forced manufactures to develop efficient and effective supply chain management (Nitin et al., 2010).

c. Quality improvement
Harber (1990) believes JIT contribute to continuous quality improvement and promoting employee participation in planning and execution. Spencer and Guide (1995) presented a case stating that quality improvements are seen as the result of JIT and that quality is an important component of JIT.

To fully implement JIT, enterprise needs to move the materials smoothly on the basis of stable demand and able to obtain raw materials instantly; it can be solved by managing a good relationship with customers and suppliers. Damodar and Carol (1991) identified four basic aspects contributed to JIT implementation: elimination of waste; employee involvement in decision-making; supplier participation; total quality control.Since SMEs have little leverage to suppliers, they could first start with Just-in-Time production; once it has accomplished, SMEs could focus on Just-in-Time delivery, which requires a work culture where suppliers are interested in long term relationships (Manoochehri, 1988). 

2. Simulation 模拟

 

2.1 Simulation
Simulation is the imitation of the real operation processes or system which predicts the outcome for different assumption without intervention on the system (Banks et al, 2001). It can provide visual and dynamic explanation of how the system works; consequently the system can be tested and improved (Detty, 2000). It has aroused increasing interest of organizational researchers. Counter to the looking backwards to the conventional methods, simulation enables researchers to moving forwards meaning that looking into the future via observation.Varieties of assumption are needed for other research methods to study the cause and effect, whereas researchers are able to deliberate the inherent characteristics and complexity of the existing system (Kevin, 2002). 

According to Axelord (1997), there were seven different purpose of simulation that has been proved by various studies in the field of social science. While, in this article we mainly discussthree of them.
a. Prediction
Researchers could build the model in the basis of the real condition involving the structure and rules to ensure relative results and output. Predictions relates to thecertain changes in work in progress, productivity etc., and the impact of these certain changes on the system. By comparing with different predictions obtained under different situations, specifically in accordance with different structures and governing rules, researchers areable to seek for the optimum alternative for the system or organizations. The validity of suchpredictions depends on the validity of the model (Kevin, 2002). A wide array of studies was found constructing the model of job shops and assembly line (Law and Kelton, 1982). It is often used in scheduling the production process or service industry. Simulation could provide prediction without intervention on the actual system and skip the experimentation step which may be dangerous, time-consuming, expensive, and inconvenient (Kevin, 2002). 

b. Theory discovery
Simulation can expose the concealedphenomena that contributed to theoreticalattention.For example, Brown and Eisenhardt (1998) havediscovered the phenomenon, edge of chaos, the one that draws much attention within the organization. Theyalso state extensively how to effectivelybalance thepredictable and the unpredictable outcome at the edge of chaoswithin the organizations. 

c. Performance
In the organizational realm, simulation is often considered as decision-aid tool as it could execute the real tasks with proper standardization and validation, for instance, decision-making or diagnosis. In the decision-making phase, uncertainty and randomness are thenatural properties of the system.However, uncertainty should always be taken into consideration in the context of decision, which cannot easily be achieved in the manner of analytical formulations. Monte Carlo simulation, similar to discrete event simulation without concerning the variable of time, was introduced to mimic the possible uncertainty in the real state (Kevin, 2002). Cooper (1993) has given an example of this simulation model--to determine which to invest in from a set of project aiming at maximize some certain benefitunder the condition of limited given resource.

d. Training 
Simulation is extensively used as a training method in two fields: military organizations and nuclear plants. Both of these two organizations need to reply in a timely manner to a given set of conditions, close toautomaticity. Simulation could buildvirtual reality to improve improvisationability and prepare response measuresin advance due to that the real situation is high risky, difficult and money-consuming to mimicin a physical context (Kevin, 2002).

e. Education
By studying simulation, users could obtain the knowledge about the workingmechanism of a complex system, like feedback and nonlinearity (Rushkoff, 1996).

f. Entertainment
g. Proof
Entertainment and Proof as a usage of simulation in social science realm is not common.

Simulation consists of three main schools: discrete event simulation, system dynamics and agent-based simulation (Dooley, 2002). Discrete event simulation refers to the model of the operation system having a discrete sequence of events in time. And each event occurs at a particular time which marks a change in system state (Robinson, 2004).Kevin (2002) defined discrete event simulation as a system comprisinga range of entities depending on the availability of resources and the effectiveness and triggering of events (Kevin, 2002). We willdiscuss discrete event simulation at length in the following section.
System dynamics identify the state of a system and variables which stands for the behaviors, and relates each variable to other variables according to the system rules.It studied the information-feedback from industrial activity. The outcomes may describe the influences of organizational structure, amplification, and time delays on the enterprises (Forrester, 1961). This is scientific method studying the influence of organizational structure and corporate policy on industrial growth and stability. Compared with discrete event simulation, system dynamicsfocus not only on the impact on the final target but on the interacted influences between the variables. Variables are stated by the first derivative of the state variable instead of its natural metrics. Therefore, the interacted influence can be identified between these variables. Generally speaking, with iterations, the outcomes should be more scientific compared with discrete event simulation (Kevin, 2002).

例子
Agent-based simulation involves agents and aims at maximize or minimum the fitness functions. Agent behavior is defined by embedded schema, which is both interpretive and action-oriented in nature (Kevin, 2002).Agent-based simulation is quite different from the two methods above. The above methods aims on variables and event, while agent-based simulation focus on organizational participants, such as companies, teams and employees and their behavior. Researchers regard this method as sentient beings in computer, and take them with interpretive and behavioral in their nature. While this method requires the discipline of complexity science, with the fast development of complexity science, it seems to become the dominant method in the future (Anderson,2000).
例子

2.2 Discrete Event Simulation

Discrete event model can be traced back to 1960s when Gordon (1961) first came up with this concept, and subsequently evolved it for GPSS and applied to IBM.Law and Kelton (1982) said that the organization system simulation being discrete, dynamic and stochastic can be characterized as discrete event simulation. 
It is best suited for the situation when a collection of variables and corresponding states could fully represent the given system, and along with the occurrence of random events,the value of the variables states would change a finite number of timesin a rule-oriented manner (Andrei and Alexei, ).Andrei and Alexei () conceived discrete event model as an approach illustrating entity flow andresource allocation grounded on a set of entities, resource and governing rules. 

About 100 commercial tools are existed that are used for building the discrete event model according to Andrei and Alexei’s () calculation. Some of them are aimed at special niches, such as service industry, manufacturing and logistics sector. The rest are designed for general purpose. Underneath the distinct user interface caused by specialization, all of these different tools have discrete event simulation engine to mimic the real situation.There a 

Entities are passive objects that represent people, parts, documents, tasks, messages, etc.  They travel through the blocks of the flowchart where they stay in queues, are delayed, processed, seize and release resources, split, combined, etc.

3. Fusion of JIT and Discrete-Event SimulationJIT与离散事件仿真的融合

 

Due to the technical obstacles existing in the implementation of JIT production, simulation as a useful tool was introduced to identify the weakness and risk of manufacturing operation by many experts (Fernando, 2002).
For example, to tackle the design problem of a chemical company, Welgama and Mills (1995) have changed its traditional system to JIT system by means of simulation. 
Lars Holst (2001) mentioned in his book:
Discrete-event simulation thus provides analysis, description and evaluation capabilities of systems, and if successfully applied can support collaborative work across organizational boundaries and thereby improve information and communication.
Furthermore, Hollocks (1992) has listed the general advantages of using DES in manufacturing content. Manufactures will benefit from reducing risk and operation cost, shortening production cycle, improving customer service. Detty (2000) has proved that discrete event computer simulation is able to help with adoptinglean manufacturing by providing achievable improvement in time-based activities and creditable estimated savings in resources.

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    答:笔译翻译又称人工笔头翻译, 既通过文字形式的翻译转换, 把源语言翻译成目标语言, 是当今全球经济发展, 政治文化交流的主要方式, 笔译通过文字展现方式, 使全世界上千种语言能够互通有无, 每天都有数以亿计的文字被翻译或转译, 笔译肩负着世界各国经济文化发展的重任, 是各国各民族的文化大使, 我们的笔译领域涉及十大类专业领域和五百多种不同的分领域。
    问:是否可以请高校教师、学者或学生翻译?
    答:绝对不能,风险自负。许多公司在寻找译者时,首先想到的是当地学校或大学的外语院系。有时,这种做法对于供内部使用的翻译可能有效,即,您只想了解文件大意,但对于正式的公司宣传材料、手册或者合同文档而言,这样做却风险极大。外语教学需要有特殊的技能,但这些技能却与翻译一篇流利、优美的文章所需的技能完全不同。让学生来做翻译看起来经济实惠,但风险更高,因为他们毫无实战经验,翻译出来的文件基本无法使用。
    问:翻译交稿时间周期为多长?
    答:翻译交稿时间与您的文件大小以及复杂程度有关。每个专业译者的正常翻译速度为3000-4000中文字/天,对于加急的大型项目,我们将安排多名译员进行翻译,由项目经理将文件拆分成若干文件,分配给不同的译员进行翻译,翻译后由项目经理进行文件的合并,并经统一术语、审校、质控、排版等翻译流程,最终交付给客户。
    问:提供一个网站的网址,能够给出翻译报价吗?
    答:对于网站翻译,如果您能提供网站的FTP,或您从后台将整个网站下载打包给我们,我们可在10分钟内给出精确报价。同时,只要您提供原始网页文件,我们会提供给您格式与原网页完全一致的目标语言版本,可以直接上线使用,省却您的改版时间。
    问:为什么标点符号也要算翻译字数?
    答:①根据中华人民共和国国家标准GB/T 19363.1-2003 对翻译行业服务规范的要求,中文字数统计是以不计空格字符数为计算单位的。标点符号算翻译字数是统一的行业标准。 ②标点符号在不同的语种中,有不同的表达方式,例如中文的标点符号大多是全角的,英文的无特殊设置都是半角的,而且如果一句话或一段内容夹杂两种不同的语言,标点符号的规则就相对复杂,对于翻译文件来说,标点符号的部分也是很费时。 ③另外,标点符号在句子中对句子语境等的限制因素,使得标点对句子、对译员翻译判断等起到一定的要求。所以,该部分也要计算在内。 ④可能我们平时不是很注重标点符号,其实在文字表达中,标点符号的重要不亚于单字单词,一个标点符号可以改变全句话的意思,而我们的工作也是做到了这一点,保证每个标点符号的准确,保证译文表达的意思和原文一样。
    问:需要与你们公司什么人接洽翻译业务呢?
    答:我们公司采取专属客服服务模式。为企业客户配备专属客服,一对一沟通具体翻译需求,组建专属译员团队。
    问:为何每家翻译公司的报价不一样?
    答:大家都知道一分价格一分货,在翻译行业里更为突出,译员的水平是划分等级的。新开的翻译公司或不具备翻译资质的公司为了抢占市场,恶意搅乱,以次充好,低价吸引客户。
    问:为什么数字、字母也要算翻译字数?
    答:根据中华人民共和国国家标准GB/T 19363.1-2003 对翻译行业服务规范的要求,中文字数统计是以不计空格字符数为计算单位的。而数字、字母也是包含在其中。而对翻译公司来说,数字和字母也要算翻译字数的原因还包括以下两个方面: 首先,我们的收费都是根据国家颁布的翻译服务规范来收取翻译费用,对待收费我们都是统一对待的,其次,数字和字母也是文章中的一部分,特别是在一些商务文件中,数字就是文件的主题,所以也是一样要收费的。 另外,纯数字字母需要核对、录入,比翻译一个词语更麻烦,翻译是大脑里面概念形成的,而纯数字字母是要严谨的核对、录入才能实现的,这将会花费更多的时间,所以我们会把数字和字母也算成字数。 但是有一种情况除外,如审计报告里面那种数据很多而且又不需要我们翻译可以直接保留的,这部分我们可以不计算在内。
    问:请问贵司每天的翻译量是多少?
    答:我们公司最高翻译记录为一天翻译50万字。原则上我们会在约定的时间内完成,但是时间和质量是成正比的,慢工才能出细活,我们建议在时间允许的情况下,尽量给译员充足的翻译时间,以便交付优质的译文。
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